Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Can New Technology Be Bad For The Auto Industry?


OK, so the headline seems counter-intuitive, I agree. New technology is being folded into our new vehicles so fast it is sometimes hard to keep up, and I am in the industry. We are finally at a point where competition is truly creating differences (more choices) that we can appreciate and use to make our decisions. I propose however that some of these diversions are just that, deflections of correct ideas into marketing niches that will in the long run create eddies in the advancement river, if not backwater dead ends.

One such trend that I am fearful of is new battery technology. Currently, Lithium Ion batteries are the rage, and everyone is trying to jump out front to become the dominant player. Our government is subsidizing production, China is trying to buy up all of the scarce raw materials needed for production, and many manufacturers are trying to tie up producers with long term very aggressive contracts. What I see is an industry that is building it's own blinders towards newer and better battery technology that may emerge at any moment, because it has become so heavily invested in Li-Ion. I am encouraged by this article by Matthew Deboard of BNET.com that shows at least Johnson Controls seems to be logical in it's approach. In reading between the lines I see a massive corporation that doesn't want to commit to an all-in investment in a technology that won't ever really be the end game. I believe some wise engineer has been listened to (and that doesn't happen a lot in corporate America), that has cautioned against this stop gap battery being "the next great thing".

If you have read my posts in the past you will remember many such articles about which battery, engine, hybrid or plug-in combination will become the chosen replacement for the internal combustion engine. I think everyone agrees we need it... I am just glad to see wise people in the industry recognize that we haven't actually seen it yet. Don't get so tied up in today's solution that you cannot embrace and dominate the right choice that appears tomorrow.

Autopartstomorrow.com

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